Report Predicts 18M Base Station Transceiver Shipments by 2017 (2/12/13)
Tuesday, February 12, 2013 | Comments

Mobile Experts released a base station transceiver forecast that includes exclusive, in-depth carrier aggregation predictions and comprehensive analysis of multiple input multiple output (MIMO) and active antenna system adoption in macrocells. Added complexity in the RF processing will lead to strong growth in transceiver shipments over the next five years, from 11 million units shipped in 2012 to more than 18 million units in 2017, the report states.

“We have investigated more than 33 different carrier aggregation (CA) band combinations and we’ve included the impact of CA in our transceiver forecast,” Principal Analyst Joe Madden said. “The market has become highly complex, and our model includes AAS, integrated antenna/radio modules, MIMO and now CA in order to illustrate what is really driving the trends in the base station market.”

The Excel-based forecast model includes five-year predictions for:

-Base stations

-Radio transceivers

-Remote radio heads (RRH)

-Active antenna systems (AAS)

-Integrated antenna radios (IARs)

-MIMO infrastructure, including 2x2 and 4xn MIMO base stations

-CA transceiver deployment by frequency band

-Upgrades to existing base station transceivers for CA

-Transceiver shipments by frequency group

-Transceiver shipments broken out for every 3GPP band

-Transceiver shipments by power level

-Market shares for transceivers by OEM

- Virtual base station shipments (base stations that are deployed through software upgrades only)

“We have been able to collect input from more than 20 RF suppliers, in order to build a comprehensive database of shipments in key frequency bands,” he said. “The result is the most comprehensive view available for the base station market. While we see the number of transceivers multiplying, we should caution suppliers that the average dollar content in each transceiver will drop due to the implementation of active antenna systems and MIMO, as well as reductions in RF power level.”

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